A threat of illness may reduce confirmation bias

Angela Akins
Marc Rosewood
John Taylor

Performance on reasoning tasks like the Wason selection task (Wason, 1968) have demonstrated that people are generally prone to confirmation bias unless the rules evoke a social contract that may or may not be broken (Gigerenzer & Hug, 1992). Social Contract Theory (Cosmides, 1989) posits that enhanced performance on rules invoking a social contract is due to an evolved mechanism that protects us from being cheated. A similar mechanism may exist as a result of other evolutionary pressures, such as contagion or physical threats. The present study was designed using a two-alternative forced-choice version of the Wason selection task to determine how people reason about rules invoking the threat of illness. We created rules expressed in a cause-symptom manner as well as an symptom-as-caused-by manner. The results demonstrate that the order of symptom and cause has some effect on accuracy. However, our results primarily demonstrate an increase in rejecting aspects of the rule and a reduction in confirmation bias when a threat of illness is implied as compared to control rules that contain no such threat.